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y. The team said Molina had successful surg

in Staffel 3 25.06.2019 03:38
von zhanjiao1212 • 210 Beiträge

One of the e-mails I receive frequently about the application of advanced statistics in professional hockey regards “PDO”, and why the metric is so often referenced when discussing outlier performance. Cheap Memphis Grizzlies Jerseys . PDO is nothing more than a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage, expressed in thousands. It’s a simple calculation, but imperative when conducting analysis and forecasting future outcomes. The theory behind PDO is that shooting percentage is primarily luck-driven, and save-percentage is primarily luck-driven, and at the team-level, teams will consistently regress towards this 1,000 (i.e., the league average) number. Teams with extremely high PDO’s, say 1020 and above, are great bets to regress unfavorably. Teams with extremely low PDO’s, say 980 and below, are great bets to regress favorably. From time to time, we’ll see small deviations in genuinely great and genuinely terrible teams. But in most cases, it simply pays to (a) be skeptical that any percentage-fueled run is real; (b) focus on winning the shot-differential battle, because shot-differentials will predict future outcome far better than past shooting and save percentages will. PDO was at the heart of the 2013-2014 Toronto Maple Leafs debate – a team whose predictable and catastrophic end-of-year collapse pushed professional hockey into the analytics era. A bunch of smart hires were made by organizations around the league, and it seemed as though the debate over percentage-fueled runs and team-level shot quality myths were put to bed. Still, there seems to be some lingering doubt. Many, many words have been spilled about the 2013-2014 Colorado Avalanche, a team that – despite endless precaution – decided to double-down on mythological shot quality, ignoring innumerable red flags in the process. It wasn’t just the Avalanche organization buying stock, either. Bovada, an online sportsbook with a vested interest in outcomes, opened with Colorado as a 98.5 point team. On the other hand, that same online sportsbook opened up with the New Jersey Devils as an 83.5 point team – 15-points less than Colorado. Are these two teams fifteen points different? It’s possible the answer is yes, but not in the way you’d think. First, let’s look at each team’s ability to control play via Corsi%, starting with game one of last season and running it through today’s data. We’ll use a 10-game rolling average to smooth out results. Not a whole lot has changed from last year to this year, which is signified by the vertical line at the game 82 mark. New Jersey has consistently earned a better percentage of the shot-share, never once dipping below the 50% threshold over any 10-game stretch. Colorado, on the other hand, has been consistently subpar at controlling play. Other than a five-game window (31-36), they’ve been regularly under 50%. If you looked solely at the possession numbers and were aware of the tight correlation between controlling the puck and winning in today’s NHL, you would think that New Jersey was a playoff caliber team. Colorado? A lottery team. But, the hockey gods are funny sometimes. We know Colorado’s off to a horrendous and predictable 3-6-5 start, but the possession numbers don’t explain why things suddenly went south. Nor does it explain why New Jersey – who was a possession world-beater last year – failed to make the post-season. So, let’s go to the percentages, captured by the aforementioned PDO. Again, it’s more or less a measure of “puck luck”, and the likelihood of a team’s number regressing to 1,000 is extremely strong. We’ll roll Colorado and New Jersey’s PDO over 10-games to again smooth things a bit. Colorado sat well above the 1,000 mark for the vast majority of last season. New Jersey sat well below the 1,000 mark for the vast majority of last season. Whereas Colorado (8.07% Sh%, .931 SV%) saw all of the bounces at 5-on-5, New Jersey (7.12 Sh%, .914 SV%) did not. I think the dividing vertical lines on both of these graphs are amazing in the sense that they capture precisely what we’re looking for in terms of forecasting future outcome. When it came to a team’s ability to control play at 5-on-5 via Corsi%, both teams in 2014-2015 are reasonably near their respective 2013-2014 performance. This is because puck possession is repeatable. On the PDO graph, it’s the total opposite. The shooting and save percentages have flipped entirely, which is consistent with what we have seen in PDO volatility across many different teams over many, many years. New Jersey may have made the right move going from Martin Brodeur to Cory Schneider, but a goaltending switch wouldn’t explain how the team jumped from 26th to 14th in shooting percentage seemingly overnight. Randomness, of course, would. Combine that with generally out-possessing the opposition, and you have a respectable 6-4-2 record. On the Colorado side, the team has seen somewhat unfavorable percentage luck, but it’s far closer to the league averages than anything the team experienced last year. And, of course, the team is still getting drilled in the shot department. It’s a combination that generally ends up in fan bases paying attention to the draft lottery, rather than preparing for the post-season. Cheap Mike Bibby Jersey .C. -- Authorities say the brother of Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Roddy White has been shot and killed outside a South Carolina nightclub. Cheap Dillon Brooks Jersey . -- Without Carey Price, the run for a first Stanley Cup in 21 years got steeper and longer for the Montreal Canadiens. http://www.cheapgrizzliesjerseys.com/?tag=cheap-zach-randolph-jersey .Then came December.Three straight losses, including a crushing 27-24 defeat to Washington (4-11) on Saturday, has the Eagles (9-6) on the brink of playoff elimination.MILWAUKEE -- Matt Holliday hit a solo homer with two outs in the top of the ninth inning off Brewers closer Francisco Rodriguez, completing the St. Louis Cardinals comeback from a six-run deficit for a 7-6 win Friday night over Milwaukee. Milwaukee has lost six straight and 10 of 11 games. Holliday sent the first-pitch changeup from Rodriguez (3-3) into the left-field seats to break the tie. The Cardinals hit four homers and cut the sliding Brewers lead in the NL Central to one game. Trevor Rosenthal wrapped up six shutout innings for the St. Louis bullpen with his 28th save, getting two strikeouts after allowing a leadoff single to Aramis Ramirez in the bottom of the ninth. All-Star setup man Pat Neshek (4-0) tossed 1 1/3 scoreless innings for the win. It was also a second straight tough loss for the Brewers, who fell 9-1 on Thursday to the Phillies despite Matt Garzas no-hit bid into the seventh inning. Manager Ron Roenicke was ejected in the ninth after arguing a strike call. Afterward, a visibly-shaken skipper closed the clubhouse and didnt take reporters questions, citing a death in the family of a player who he did not name. "For respect of him right now, were not going to let anybody in the clubhouse," Roenicke said. "Sorry, but these things are tough and I just dont want to leave any players open to anything." The Cardinals chipped away with three home runs off starter Yovani Gallardo. Jhonny Peralta hit a two-run homer -- his team-high 14th -- to get St. Louis within 6-5 with one out in the sixth, two pitches after manager Ron Roenicke visited the mound but decided against pulling Gallardo with the bullpen going. Gallardo departed aftter Peraltas homer. Cheap NBA Jerseys. . The bullpen gave up the lead anyway. Rob Wooten loaded the bases without retiring a hitter, and lefty-hitting Oscar Tavares drove in the tying run with a grounder against left-handed reliever Zach Duke. The Brewers tagged Joe Kelly in his first start back from a nearly three-month stint on the disabled list with a left hamstring injury. Kelly got hurt April 16 at Miller Park. Kelly plunked leadoff hitter Carlos Gomez just below the palm of his hand and Scooter Gennett singled. After a double steal, Milwaukee loaded the bases and eventually got a sacrifice fly from Ramirez and two-run double from Khris Davis for a 3-0 lead in the first. Gennett tripled in a three-run second inning during an at-bat extended after a fan in the first row down the left-field line reached for a catchable foul ball that eluded Holliday. Gallardo allowed five runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings against a career nemesis. Kelly gave up six runs and seven hits in three innings. NOTES: The Cardinals claimed veteran C George Kottaras off waivers from the Cleveland Indians and planned to add him to the 25-man roster Saturday. Theyre looking for help behind the plate with Yadier Molina out with a thumb injury. The team said Molina had successful surgery Friday. ... Kolten Wong hit his fourth homer for the Cardinals since coming off the DL on July 6. ... Brewers C Jonathan Lucroy will start the All-Star game Tu

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